The FIFA World Cup is the biggest football feast. While favorites like Brazil, France, and Argentina grab the headlines, underdogs often produce the biggest surprises.
Morocco’s historic run to the semifinals in 2022 is a prime example of why bettors should pay close attention to underdogs and their World Cup FIFA odds — their journey from 250/1 outsiders to the semifinals reshaped betting markets. They proved that reputation isn’t the only factor that matters.
Pre‑Tournament Odds — Morocco Written Off
Before the 2022 World Cup, Morocco was priced at 200/1 to win outright. Neither their performance in previous tournaments nor the squad allowed bookmakers to give lower odds — thus, those who decided to bet on their progress scooped a lot.
Morocco’s pre-tournament odds also show that disciplined teams from outside Europe or South America are often underestimated. Spotting these undervalued teams early can be the difference between ordinary bets and impressive payouts.
Group Stage Success — Odds Begin to Shift
Morocco’s group featured Belgium, Croatia, and Canada. Many said it was a tough draw. After a goalless draw with Croatia and a shock 2‑0 win over Belgium, Morocco felt that they could qualify for the kickoffs. By their final group match, they were seen as favorites by many bookmakers, including MyBookie.
This was the first signal that Morocco could surprise rivals in the knockout stage. Still, many football fans did not believe that this team could make a sensation (especially given that it was to clash with Spain in the round of 16).
Kickoff Stage Upsets — Spain and Portugal
In the round of 16, Morocco was a clear underdog. Spain had all the chances to gain victory, but Morocco used their:
- defensive solidity;
- persistence;
- ability to work as a team.
Those qualities of the squad led to a penalty shootout victory. The team’s success made odds tighten dramatically.
However, Morocco was once again seen as an outsider in the quarterfinal against Portugal. More bettors believed in them after the match with Spain, and those who backed this African team profited from another victory.
Semifinal Against France — From Outsiders to Contenders
By the semifinal, Morocco’s outright odds had shortened from around 20/1 to 25/1. They did not become favorites again.
However, their victory was not seen as something unrealistic. Bettors who backed Morocco to score or cover spreads found profitable angles, even though France ultimately won 2‑0.
Morocco’s journey forced bookmakers to recalibrate, proving that outsiders can reshape markets when they consistently deliver results. So, reputation matters, but it is best to analyze performance during the World Cup itself.
Why Underdogs Are Worth Tracking in the FIFA World Cup 2026?
The World Cup 2026 will feature 48 teams, expanding the group stage and increasing the number of matches. This change of format brings more opportunities for the underdog to surprise with performance.
Teams from Africa, Asia, and North America will have more opportunities to progress, meaning odds markets will have to adapt.
This expansion is great news for bettors who will now get more games against worse teams. This is exactly where underdogs can pull off historic wins. The new format also means more volatility, as more games mean more chances for upsets.
Tracking underdogs also reveals market inefficiencies. Bookmakers rely heavily on reputation and historical performance. So, those underdogs that have victorious potential would still have longer odds, and bettors with a sharp eye can benefit from this.
Lessons from Morocco’s Success
Tracking underdogs in the FIFA World Cup is the strategy that can deliver real betting value. Morocco’s 2022 semifinal run is the perfect example of how odds evolve when outsiders outperform expectations. Here are the main lessons from the previous World Cup that we can use this summer.
Early Spot Value
Long odds are often associated with underdogs, but those who spot disciplined teams early can lock in remarkable returns.
Morocco started at 250/1, but their tactical resilience soon shortened their odds. Bettors who backed them before the kickoff stage enjoyed huge potential payouts.
So, make sure to monitor such teams in 2026 and follow the news and insights attentively. Many bookmakers have them integrated. MyBookie is one of them. So, if you choose it for your betting activity, you will not miss any important news.
Diversify Bets
Outright odds aren’t the only profitable markets. Morocco rewarded bettors in “to qualify,” “clean sheet,” and “spread” markets. So, diversifying your bets across match-specific outcomes reduces risk and increases opportunities. Also, explore markets where underdogs often outperform expectations.
Watch the market slow to react to unexpected success. Morocco’s odds were generous even after beating Spain and Portugal. This lag provides opportunities for attentive bettors who act quickly.
Why Bettors Should Watch Underdogs Closely?
Morocco’s run to the 2022 FIFA World Cup semifinals proved why you should pay attention to the underdogs. Their run shows how odds change when the outsiders exceed expectations.
You can expect to see sensational play from the underdogs in the 2026 tournament, so it’s important to identify it early to get the most out of your betting opportunities.
